Cert Petitions in Spring 2026: What the Data Shows
The analysis is based on a comprehensive tracker of 91 pending cert petitions across four categories noting the likelihood of a cert grant based on what we know about the petitions so far.
Looking across the 91 petitions currently tracked on SCOTUBlog’s designated Petitions page, a few structural patterns emerge that are worth naming before turning to individual cases.
First, the relist numbers are unusually high this term. Of the 15 relisted cases, four have been relisted eight or more times — a level of sustained conference attention that historically correlates strongly with an eventual grant. Smith v. Scott leads at 16 relists, a figure that almost never appears for petitions that are eventually denied. Second, the Second Amendment cluster is larger and more coordinated than anything seen since the post-Bruen term began working through its downstream cases. Five petitions from different circuits, involving both magazine capacity restrictions and assault-style rifle bans, are pending simultaneously. Third, a parental rights cluster is building alongside the more visible Second Amendment cases, and the relist numbers there — 11 for Foote v. Ludlow School Committee, with nine amicus briefs filed at the cert stage — suggest the Court has been doing something more than routine consideration.
What follows works through the major clusters, the cases carrying the strongest signals, and a separate look at the earlier-stage petitions where the data is thinner.
What’s Covered
The analysis is based on a comprehensive tracker of 91 pending cert petitions across four categories: 15 relisted cases, 13 petitions set for the next conference, 51 featured petitions, and 12 calls for the views of the Solicitor General (CVSGs). Each case is assessed using a weighted formula that treats relist count as the dominant signal, then layers in circuit split confirmation, dissents below, CVSG status, Solicitor General as petitioner, amicus activity at the cert stage, and counsel quality.
The cert bands used throughout this piece are derived from a weighted formula. Relist count is the dominant input: the base signal rises in tiers from modest at one or two relists to very strong at sixteen or more. The formula adds bonuses for CVSG status, SG as petitioner, confirmed circuit split, dissent below, amicus briefs at the cert stage, government petitioner, and elite cert counsel, among other factors.